Source: https://athlonsports.com/college-football/why-alabama-will-or-wont-make-college-football-playoff-2018
As mentioned earlier, the first week of the college bowl season was great for me. The last two weeks, not so much. Out of the 39 bowl games played this year, I accurately predicted the winner in 22 of them. That’s roughly 56% so better than a coin flip but not much better. Ha!
There were a couple of games that really ruined me specifically on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. In the Holiday Bowl, I had predicted that the Utah Utes would had a 90.79% chance of winning, but they lost to Northwestern. Then on January 1st, I had Georgia with a 96.84% chance of beating the Longhorns, but yeah, that didn’t go over very well. My Brier Score for that game alone was 0.9378 (closer to being one meaning very inaccurate)!
Overall for all bowl games, my Brier Score ended up with a 0.2837. “Not great, Bob!”
Here is my prediction for tonight’s game!
| Number | Bowl | Teams | Model | Vegas | Difference | Predicted Points | Vegas Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | National Championship | Clemson Tigers | 39.65% | 33.78% | 5.87% | 20 | |
| 7-Jan | Alabama Crimson Tide | 60.35% | 69.16% | -8.81% | 23 | 57 |
The Vegas numbers are Money Line Odds from Pinnacle. They’re not really all that far from mine, but they are definitely predicting a higher scoring game than I am. I expect it’ll be pretty close regardless…well, hopefully.
So that’s it! Enjoy the official end of the 2018 College Football Season!