For the first week of the 2018 College Bowl Season (December 15th-21st) there were eleven bowls played, and my model predicted correct outcomes on nine of those games. The second week (December 22nd-28th) was way more brutal for me. There were twelve bowls played (plus one that was canceled due to inclement weather), and my model was only correct on five of them! The worst loss for me was the Texas Bowl in Houston between the Baylor Bears and the Vanderbilt Commodores. I had Baylor with only a 3.41% chance of winning that game. Oops!
Overall I’m fourteen for twenty-three or 60.87% correct so far. Unfortunately, my brier score so far is 0.235 which really isn’t all that great either. This upcoming week we get all the big games including all the New Year’s Day games like the Rose Bowl, the Citrus Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl as well as the two Semifinal games being played later today in the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl. But first, we have to talk about the Aggies of Texas A&M, of course!
Gator Bowl: North Carolina State vs. # 19 Texas A&M (12/31 6:30 PM CST on ESPN)
| Number | Teams | Model | Vegas | Difference | Predicted Points | Vegas Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | NC State Wolfpack | 11.12% | 29.59% | -18.47% | ||
| Texas A&M Aggies | 88.88% | 73.37% | 15.51% | 65 | 56 |
As can be seen above, I’m fairly confident that A&M will win this game although I’m predicting the final score to be 35-30 in favor of A&M. That should indicate that it will be a close game. Of course, after the barn burner that was the Thanksgiving Weekend game against LSU, I’d rather A&M score early and win big! After winning four bowl games in a row from 2011-2014, the Aggies have lost three in a row since then. I’m certainly hoping that the Ags can finally get back into the Win column.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Round
Cotton Bowl: #3 Notre Dame vs #2 Clemson (12/29 3 PM CST on ESPN)
Based on my model, I don’t really seem to have much faith that Notre Dame can pull off a victory this afternoon (see what I did there?). Even Vegas is shrugging them off. Final score with Clemson on top, 26-16 so hopefully the Irish can make the game interesting at the very least.
| Number | Teams | Model | Vegas | Difference | Predicted Points | Vegas Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3.10% | 22.22% | -19.12% | ||
| Clemson Tigers | 96.90% | 80.71% | 16.19% | 42 | 57 |
Orange Bowl: #4 Oklahoma vs #1 Alabama (12/29 7 PM CST on ESPN)
Yikes! And if you thought the chances of Notre Dame winning were low, my model has nearly zero confidence that Oklahoma can pull off an upset versus Alabama tonight. I mean 0.39% chance is pretty much zero. Not a Big 12 Fan anymore, but I really hope the Sooners can put up a decent fight. However, my final score heavily favors Alabama 55-26…not even going to be a meaningful game to watch, unfortunately.
| Number | Teams | Model | Vegas | Difference | Predicted Points | Vegas Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.39% | 18.18% | -17.79% | ||
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 99.61% | 84.75% | 14.86% | 81 | 78 |
Week 3 FBS Bowl Games
Here are the rest of the Bowl games for the final full week of the Bowl season. After this, there’s only the National Championship on January 7th.
Oh, and for any Texas fans out there, I know I don’t give the Longhorns much of a chance of winning (3.16% chance), but here’s what I think the final score will be based on my model: Georgia 37 – Texas 19. Sorry! #notsorry
| Number | Bowl | Teams | Model | Vegas | Difference | Predicted Total Points |
Vegas Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Belk Bowl | South Carolina Gamecocks | 81.51% | 65.53% | 15.98% | ||
| 29-Dec | Virginia Cavaliers | 18.49% | 37.45% | -18.96% | 51 | 54 | |
| 27 | Peach Bowl | Florida Gators | 15.08% | 34.14% | -19.06% | ||
| 29-Dec | Michigan Wolverines | 84.92% | 68.78% | 16.14% | 46 | 51 | |
| 28 | Arizona Bowl | Arkansas State Red Wolves | 40.72% | 40.72% | |||
| 29-Dec | Nevada Wolf Pack | 59.28% | 59.28% | 55 | 56 | ||
| 30 | Sun Bowl | Stanford Cardinal | 72.12% | 67.02% | 5.10% | ||
| 31-Dec | Pittsburgh Panthers | 27.88% | 35.97% | -8.09% | 55 | 52 | |
| 31 | Military Bowl | Cincinatti Bearcats | 97.26% | 69.74% | 27.52% | ||
| 31-Dec | Virginia Tech Hokies | 2.73% | 33.22% | -30.49% | 51 | 53.5 | |
| 32 | Liberty Bowl | Missouri Tigers | 95.18% | 76.98% | 18.20% | ||
| 31-Dec | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 4.82% | 25.97% | -21.15% | 74 | 74 | |
| 33 | Redbox Bowl | Michigan State Spartans | 51.98% | 51.98% | |||
| 31-Dec | Oregon Ducks | 48.02% | 48.02% | 42 | 48 | ||
| 35 | Holiday Bowl | Northwestern Wildcats | 9.21% | 29.59% | -20.38% | ||
| 31-Dec | Utah Utes | 90.79% | 73.37% | 17.42% | 42 | 46 | |
| 36 | Outback Bowl | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 75.08% | 73.05% | 2.03% | ||
| 1-Jan | Iowa Hawkeyes | 24.92% | 29.85% | -4.93% | 32 | 42.5 | |
| 37 | Rose Bowl | Washington Huskies | 37.24% | 31.25% | 5.99% | ||
| 1-Jan | Ohio State Buckeyes | 62.76% | 71.68% | -8.92% | 63 | 58 | |
| 38 | Citrus Bowl | Kentucky Wildcats | 46.08% | 31.95% | 14.13% | ||
| 1-Jan | Penn State Nittany Lions | 53.92% | 71.02% | -17.10% | 40 | 47.5 | |
| 39 | Sugar Bowl | Texas Longhorns | 3.16% | 20.41% | -17.25% | ||
| 1-Jan | Georgia Bulldogs | 96.84% | 82.51% | 14.33% | 56 | 58 | |
| 40 | Fiesta Bowl | LSU Tigers | 70.85% | 74.07% | -3.22% | ||
| 1-Jan | UCF Knights | 29.15% | 28.90% | 0.25% | 58 | 55.5 |
Vegas Money Line Odds come from Pinnacle the morning of 12/29/2018. For games played after that day, the odds will more than likely change.