Austin Jazz Week 13 Update
Ouch! Not only did I lose, but my game was featured in our league as being the Biggest Blowout of the Week! I didn’t have much of a chance at all really. When all was said and done, I had lost 156-95! Thankfully the other guy that I was tied with in 4th place also lost so we’re still tied. The top three teams have already clinched for the playoffs so only the fourth team will be decided as we head into the last week of the FF regular season.
Looking at the possible scenarios though was giving me a bit of a headache because there are actually three of us that can possibly be tied for 4th place by Monday night at 7-7. Unfortunately none of us is playing each other, but, of course the guy I’m currently tied with has the “easiest” game against the last place team in the league. Of course, in the event of a 2-way or 3-way tie for 4th place, the seeding will come down to points scored. I’m currently 22 points down so will need to make that up with a HUGE week this weekend!!!
Win Predictions
| Game | Team | Ed's Model | Vegas | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAC vs TEN | JAC | 26.40% | 34.48% | 8.08% |
| TEN | 67.35% | 67.98% | 0.63% |
I’m definitely having fun with this part of my predictions. My win-loss probabilities are extremely close in regards to Tennessee’s chances of winning compared to the odds I found on the Pinnacle website Wednesday night about 24 hours before the game. I do have a method of scoring these predictions using the Brier Score after the games have been completed. I’ll have more of an update on that with Sunday’s predictions/blog post.
Jacksonville vs. Tennessee Fantasy Projections
| Position | Player | Team | Week 14 Fantasy Projections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | |||
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 17 | |
| Cody Kessler | JAC | 7 | |
| Running Back | |||
| Carlos Hyde | JAC | 12 | |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAC | 12 | |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 10 | |
| Dion Lewis | TEN | 10 | |
| Wide Receiver | |||
| Corey Davis | TEN | 13 | |
| Taywan Taylor | TEN | 7 | |
| Tajae Share | TEN | 4 | |
| Dede Westbrook | JAC | 10 | |
| Keelan Cole | JAC | 9 | |
| Donte Moncrief | JAC | 8 | |
| Tight End | |||
| Anthony Firsker | TEN | 8 | |
| Jonnu Smith | TEN | 6 | |
| James O'Shaughnessy | JAC | 1 | |
| Kicker | |||
| Ryan Succop | TEN | 6 | |
| Josh Lambo | JAC | 5 | |
| Defense | |||
| Titans | TEN | 5 | |
| Jaguars | JAC | 3 |
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!