When it comes to win projections for the week, I’ve already had a couple of surprises. Chargers going for two at the end of the Thursday night game was rather gutsy and gave them the win over the Chiefs that I didn’t really see coming. It was rather spectacular though!
The Cleveland-Denver game, though, was a game that I had some interesting predictions for. As mentioned Thursday night, I now have two different models: my original model that’s exclusively based on number of points scored at home and away vs. a newer model that incorporates statistics from Football Outsiders as well as points scored. The original model gave Cleveland a 16.85% chance of winning their game yesterday, while the newer model gave them a 49.82% chance. Way to go, Cleveland!
Here are today’s win projections with showing results from both models:
| # | Game | Original | New | Vegas | Expected Point Total |
Vegas O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GB | 6.35% | 23.10% | 34.14% | ||
| CHI | 91.63% | 72.24% | 68.40% | 48 | 46 | |
| 5 | DET | 67.63% | 52.50% | 43.10% | ||
| BUF | 26.78% | 41.14% | 59.38% | 39 | 40 | |
| 6 | TB | 3.15% | 6.07% | 23.26% | ||
| BAL | 95.65% | 91.83% | 79.18% | 46 | 46.5 | |
| 7 | ARI | 2.61% | 1.79% | 21.41% | ||
| ATL | 96.27% | 97.37% | 81.04% | 40 | 44 | |
| 8 | OAK | 9.32% | 20.94% | 40.00% | ||
| CIN | 88.11% | 74.67% | 62.42% | 51 | 46 | |
| 9 | TEN | 38.80% | 44.14% | 54.14% | ||
| NYG | 55.27% | 49.84% | 48.31% | 44 | 43 | |
| 10 | MIA | 10.96% | 15.84% | 24.88% | ||
| MIN | 85.88% | 80.03% | 77.58% | 43 | 45 | |
| 11 | WAS | 39.43% | 36.43% | 25.45% | ||
| JAC | 53.55% | 56.31% | 77.04% | 32 | 36.5 | |
| 12 | DAL | 41.54% | 53.68% | 39.68% | ||
| IND | 52.61% | 40.52% | 62.85% | 46 | 47 | |
| 13 | SEA | 90.41% | 97.74% | 65.53% | ||
| SF | 7.32% | 1.60% | 36.90% | 49 | 44.5 | |
| 14 | NE | 26.47% | 25.80% | 57.27% | ||
| PIT | 68.93% | 69.71% | 45.25% | 55 | 54 | |
| 15 | PHI | 1.87% | 9.72% | 16.69% | ||
| LAR | 97.40% | 87.61% | 85.76% | 53 | 52 | |
| 16 | NO | 90.73% | 86.13% | 72.15% | ||
| CAR | 7.26% | 11.05% | 30.30% | 60 | 50 |
Not too many large differences here other than the Dallas-Indianapolis game. I double checked to make sure that almost equal flip on chances of winning were correct. It’ll be interested to see how that game turns out.
Fantasy Projections
This week is usually Semi-Finals week for most Fantasy Football leagues. As mentioned Thursday, I didn’t make the playoffs in my league finishing in 5th place. Now I’m in the Consolation Bracket hoping to keep that 5th place finish. Here are your FF projections for today’s games:
Top 20 Quarterback Week 15 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 28 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | 28 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 27 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 27 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 27 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 27 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 26 |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 25 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 25 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 23 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 23 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 23 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 23 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 23 |
| Nick Mullens | SF | 22 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 20 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 20 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 19 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 18 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 18 |
Top 20 Running Back Week 15 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley II | LAR | 37 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 34 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 34 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 29 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 27 |
| Leonard Fournette | JAC | 23 |
| James White | NE | 22 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 20 |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 20 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 20 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 19 |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 17 |
| Marlon Mack | IND | 16 |
| Chris Carson | SEA | 15 |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 14 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 14 |
| Mark Ingram II | NO | 14 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAC | 14 |
| Jeff Wilson | SF | 13 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 13 |
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 15 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | GB | 31 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 29 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 28 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 28 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 27 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 25 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 25 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 24 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | 23 |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 22 |
| Robert Woods | LAR | 22 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 21 |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 21 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 20 |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 20 |
| Dante Pettis | SF | 18 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 17 |
| Kenny Golladay | DET | 17 |
| Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 16 |
| Josh Gordon | NE | 16 |
Top 15 Tight End Week 15 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | IND | 24 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 23 |
| George Kittle | SF | 22 |
| Jared Cook | OAK | 19 |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 17 |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | 12 |
| Vance McDonald | PIT | 11 |
| Evan Engram | NYG | 11 |
| Trey Burton | CHI | 11 |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 10 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 9 |
| Jimmy Graham | GB | 9 |
| Benjamin Watson | NO | 8 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 8 |
| Anthony Firkser | TEN | 8 |
Top 12 Kickers Week 15 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Zuerlein | LAR | 14 |
| Wil Lutz | NO | 13 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 11 |
| Aldrick Rosas | NYG | 11 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 11 |
| Brett Maher | DAL | 10 |
| Mason Crosby | GB | 9 |
| Robbie Gould | SF | 8 |
| Cody Parkey | CHI | 8 |
| Matt Prater | DET | 8 |
| Sebastian Janikowski | SEA | 6 |
| Ryan Succop | TEN | 6 |
Top 15 Defenses Week 15 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 15 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|
| CHI | 14 |
| MIN | 10 |
| PIT | 8 |
| IND | 7 |
| WAS | 7 |
| MIA | 7 |
| LAR | 7 |
| SEA | 7 |
| NO | 6 |
| PHI | 6 |
| TEN | 4 |
| DET | 4 |
| ARI | 4 |
| DAL | 4 |
| TB | 4 |
*The fantasy football predictions come from a model based on statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018.
The win probabilities come from a model based on statistics from Football Outsiders. The win probabilities table also includes money line odds taken from Pinnacle the morning that this blog post is published.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:1 point per 25 yards passing
4 points per passing touchdown
-2 points per interception thrown
1 point per reception
1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
6 points per TD
2 points per two-point conversion
-2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!