Source: AP/Mark Zaleski
Today we have two games with the afternoon game between the Redskins and the Titans, and the night game featuring the Ravens and the Chargers. This weekend is also typically the final weekend for Fantasy Football as many leagues have their Championship Game in Week 16. Next week, I probably won’t post a comprehensive piece on fantasy football projections for that reason, but I should still have a post on win probabilities for Week 17.
Austin Jazz Semifinal Update
Well, I wish I had better news. As it turned out nothing worked out for me in my Consolation game. It wasn’t even close as I lost 125-83. I do still have one more game to play for 7th place, but it’s definitely been a rather disappointing finish given that I went on that win streak late into the season to even come close to making the playoffs.
As far as the league is concerned, no surprise that the #1 and #2 teams will be playing each other for the League Championship although the #1 team barely won his game by one point (98-97) against the #4 team last weekend. That would’ve been something!
Win Predictions for Today’s Games
Last week I had unveiled two different models for predicting the odds for which a given team would win. The first was based on points scored at home and away, and the second was based on that as well as metrics provided by Football Outsiders. For Week 15, the second model turned out to have a better Brier Score (0.241) than did my original model (0.284). Because of the “flip” in predictions in two games, both models accurately predicted the winner (based on a higher probability of winning) in nine of the sixteen games (56%) played. Remember that the original model had Denver beating Cleveland while the newer model had the reverse prediction. That was also true for the Dallas-Indianapolis game.
However, looking back at how I was collecting data for the newer model, I have some reservations on what parameters were being fed into the model to make it’s predictions. I’m still thinking it through, but while I am, I’m going to stick with the older model for now with my predictions.
| Game | Model | Vegas | Expected Points Scored |
Vegas Over/Under |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 13.44% | 19.12% | ||
| TEN | 82.51% | 83.33% | 35 | 37.5 | |
| 2 | BAL | 39.33% | 36.78% | ||
| LAC | 54.50% | 65.79% | 41 | 42.5 |
The first game between the Redskins and Titans is a must-win for both teams. Redskins still have a rather small chance at winning the NFC East while the Titans still have a chance at the AFC South title. The Redskins are the only NFC team playing today, so if they do manage a win, they’ll still have to wait until tomorrow to find out their true fate.
The AFC playoff picture is still very muddy. I won’t go through all the scenarios (that’s a post all by itself), but if Tennessee loses, they’ll be anxiously watching the night game hoping that Baltimore doesn’t win.
Baltimore is in a must-win situation since they still have a shot at the AFC North Title. The Chargers have already secured a playoff berth but are in a race against the Chiefs for the AFC West title.
In other words, both games are important for all teams involved!!
Fantasy Football Predictions for Saturday Games
As mentioned, lots of FF leagues this weekend finishing out their respective seasons. While I wish I could share in that enthusiasm with those of you that are playing for your championship, sadly I will not. But I still wish the best of luck to all of you this weekend!
| Player | Team | Week 16 FF Predictions |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | Philip Rivers | LAC | 22 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | 17 | |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 14 | |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 10 | |
| Running Backs | Derrick Henry | TEN | 23 |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 12 | |
| Justin Jackson | LAC | 11 | |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 9 | |
| Kenneth Dixon | BAL | 8 | |
| Dion Lewis | TEN | 7 | |
| Wide Receivers | Corey Davis | TEN | 17 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 17 | |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | 14 | |
| Josh Doctson | WAS | 11 | |
| Taywan Taylor | TEN | 9 | |
| Willie Snead IV | BAL | 8 | |
| Tyler Williams | LAC | 6 | |
| Michael Crabtree | BAL | 4 | |
| Tight Ends | Antonio Gates | LAC | 7 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | WAS | 11 | |
| Hayden Hurst | BAL | 6 | |
| Luke Stocker | TEN | 1 | |
| Kickers | Justin Tucker | BAL | 12 |
| Michael Badgley | LAC | 11 | |
| Ryan Cuccop | TEN | 5 | |
| Dustin Hopkins | WAS | 4 | |
| Defense | Redskins | WAS | 6 |
| Titans | TEN | 3 | |
| Chargers | LAC | 1 | |
| Ravens | BAL | 0 |
*The fantasy football predictions come from a model based on statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018.
The win probabilities come from a model based on statistics from Football Outsiders. The win probabilities table also includes money line odds taken from the Pinnacle the morning that this blog post is published.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:1 point per 25 yards passing
4 points per passing touchdown
-2 points per interception thrown
1 point per reception
1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
6 points per TD
2 points per two-point conversion
-2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!