This week I decided to condense my FF projection posts to just one post. I didn’t want to spam people on my LinkedIn feed when there are probably less than 10% of my connections who really care about this sort of thing. I didn’t hear anything negative, but there was a steep drop in site visits over the course of the week from the QB post all the way down to the K/Defense post which, to me, is a clear case in fatigue. The only reason I even share these posts on LinkedIn is because they do relate to machine learning which is what I use to make the predictions; otherwise I would not post there and only on my Facebook and Twitter feeds. Of course, one all encompassing post means something that’ll be a bit longer, but it should be easy to just skip to the tables if you want to see the results and not read my ramblings.
Shall we get to it!
Quarterbacks
Top 20 Quarterback Week 3 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 42 | 34 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 28 | 31 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 20 | 28 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 33 | 27 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 17 | 27 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 19 | 27 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 21 | 25 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 30 | 23 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 21 | 23 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 38 | 22 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 21 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 42 | 20 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 35 | 20 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 38 | 20 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 25 | 19 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 29 | 19 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 18 | 18 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 18 | 17 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 21 | 17 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 28 | 16 |
Both Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City) and Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) ended up with 42 PPR* Fantasy Points for the week giving any fantasy owners a nice little boost. My opponent had Mahomes which led me to believe that I had already lost by 3:30 CST on Sunday afternoon. We now know how that turned out since I happen to have Kirk Cousins (Minnesota) on my team to help counterbalance that with 38 points of his own.
As for next week’s predictions, I’m still predicting big weeks for Mahomes and Deshaun Watson (Houston) with 42 points and 31, respectively. By the way, I finally figured why my models seem to really love these two, especially Deshaun. My model seems to lean very heavily on average values as seen below. Even though Mahomes played in one game last year with 1 interception and 10 yards rushing, he’s been a monster in the last two games he’s played this season. Watson played in seven games last year, and two so far this year and has also done very well. Actually I’m more impressed with the rest of the Quarterbacks on that list. All of them have quite a number of games under their belt in that time especially Tom Brady (New England) so talk about consistent winners!
Running Backs
Top 20 Running Back Week 3 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 20 | 32 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 6 | 28 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 16 | 27 |
| Todd Gurley II | LAR | 28 | 26 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 15 | 25 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 11 | 22 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 31 | 20 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 25 | 20 |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 8 | 20 |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | 12 | 20 |
| Marshawn Lynch | OAK | 15 | 18 |
| Frank Gore | MIA | 5 | 18 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 28 | 17 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 10 | 17 |
| Doug Martin | OAK | 3 | 15 |
| C.J. Anderson | CAR | 3 | 14 |
| Spencer Ware | KC | 0 | 14 |
| Carlos Hyde | CLE | 12 | 13 |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | 2 | 13 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 8 | 13 |
Both Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers) and Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) had pretty good games with three total touchdown each. Christian McCaffrey (Carolina) had no touchdowns but had a really good game receiving with 102 yards. Model seems to like Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas) which is fine for me as a Cowboys fan as they fly out to Seattle this weekend. Not so sure about David Johnson (Arizona), but apparently he’s slated to do a little more receiving in the future so maybe that’ll work out for him. My top RB on my FF team is Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) so I’m more than happy to see him continue to do well.
Wide Receivers
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 3 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 9 | 31 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 11 | 27 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 16 | 26 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 30 | 25 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 33 | 24 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 31 | 23 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 24 | 23 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 7 | 22 |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 23 | 21 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 6 | 21 |
| Brandon Marshall | SEA | 8 | 21 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 23 | 21 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 20 | 21 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 13 | 20 |
| Allen Robinson II | CHI | 18 | 19 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 21 | 19 |
| DeSean Jackson | TB | 23 | 19 |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 34 | 18 |
| Amari Cooper | OAK | 22 | 17 |
| Jarvis Landry | CLE | 12 | 17 |
I have Julio Jones (Atlanta) and Stefon Diggs (Minnesota) as my top two wide receivers, and while Jones had a more modest 11 points this weekend, Diggs had 34 points which helped a great deal in my win in FF. I’m forever grateful…until they let me down. Unfortunately, while my model liked Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants) last week, the Dallas defense kept him to just 9 Fantasy Points. Model still likes him in Week 3 so here’s hoping, if you own him anyway.
Tight Ends
Top 12 Tight End Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | SEA | 13 | 33 |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 4 | 29 |
| Jimmy Graham | GB | 16 | 22 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 30 | 20 |
| Antonio Gates | LAC | 0 | 19 |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 12 | 18 |
| Evan Engram | NYG | 20 | 16 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 20 | 15 |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 4 | 15 |
| O.J. Howard | TB | 19 | 14 |
| Vernon Davis | WAS | 2 | 13 |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 14 | 12 |
My man, Will Dissly!!! Hot damn! I was watching the Monday Night Football game in a sports bar on my way back to Austin from San Antonio. I got up and left at the two-minute warning when I resigned myself to the idea that I was going to lose my first FF game of the season. A few minutes later driving north on I-35 I received the notification that he caught a 2-yard touchdown, and when I checked I was now in the lead!! Saved my ass!
Model still likes Dissly to be a monster against the Cowboys this weekend, so I’ll have to decide if I want to start him again or Zach Ertz (Philadelphia) who I had benched but had a better weekend with 20 Fantasy points! Not sure what happened to Rob Gronkowski (New England) with only four points this last weekend…well, the Jaguars defense happened obviously, but I’m sure he’ll bounce back against the Lions this upcoming weekend…at least the model screams, BIG GAME!!!
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 2 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Butker | KC | 6 | 18 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 8 | 13 |
| Wil Lutz | NO | 7 | 12 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 5 | 12 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | 3 | 10 |
| Dustin Hopkins | WAS | 9 | 10 |
| Matt Bryant | ATL | 7 | 9 |
| Caleb Sturgis | LAC | 7 | 9 |
| Mason Crosby | GB | 17 | 9 |
| Adam Vinatieri | IND | 3 | 9 |
| Jason Myers | NYJ | 6 | 8 |
| Stephen Hauschka | BUF | 8 | 8 |
Um, so I have Jason Sanders (Miami) on my FF team, and he recorded a measly two points this weekend. I’m definitely dropping him as I usually do with Kickers anyway.
Defense
Top 12 Defenses Week 2 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 2 Fantasy Points | Week 3 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 18 |
| GB | 4 | 17 |
| BAL | 0 | 16 |
| PHI | 6 | 16 |
| MIN | 4 | 15 |
| ARI | 4 | 15 |
| NE | 4 | 14 |
| DEN | 1 | 11 |
| BUF | 2 | 11 |
| KC | 1 | 10 |
| CAR | 2 | 10 |
| NYG | 0 | 9 |
Um, well, in the model I trust right? RIGHT?!?!?
We’ll see. I have confidence in the predicted score for Chicago, not so much in Green Bay or certainly not Baltimore, but hey, what the model wants, the model gets. I have Washington and the Los Angeles Chargers on my team, neither of which even show up on my Top 12 list. I’m thinking I’ll be making a change there for the upcoming week!
That’s all, folks! Good luck this weekend!
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle from 2006-2018. As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!