Austin Jazz Week 8 Recap
There is probably nothing worse in the world than losing by one point in Fantasy Football. Well, okay, there is a lot more worse in the world, but at that moment on a Sunday night at 10:30 PM CST when you realize all you needed was one less interception or just 10 more yards out of your receiver or running back…ugh, the absolute worst!!
As you might have remembered I had to play against the top team in our league last weekend. I went up by 19 points on Thursday night. However, by the time the afternoon games started on Sunday afternoon I was down 99-79. By the end of those games I was down 123-86. I lost 131-130 and fell down to 5th place in the league taking me out of post season consideration. I’m definitely going to need a boost this upcoming weekend going up against the 3rd place team!
Model Updates
No major model updates this week, but I did want to take some time to mention that we’re in a very challenging part of the season. There are six teams on a Bye this week, and quite a few injuries that could affect all sorts of contests this week. I’ve done what I could trying to take into account some of these injuries, so I’m hoping I didn’t miss any player. If you do see something out of whack or seem to be missing a top tier player from any of the tables below, please let me know. I do plan on updating the tables on Friday afternoon/night after the weekend injury updates come out.
Quarterbacks
Top 20 Quarterback Week 9 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries as of Nov. 4, 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 31 | 33 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 30 | 30 | Questionable: Shoulder - Will Play |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 26 | 25 | |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | BYE | 25 | |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | BYE | 24 | |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 24 | 24 | |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 33 | 23 | |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 27 | 23 | |
| Drew Brees | NO | 10 | 22 | |
| Tom Brady | NE | 17 | 21 | |
| C.J. Beathard | SF | 14 | 21 | Ended up not playing Thursday night. |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 24 | 21 | |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 15 | 18 | |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 18 | 17 | |
| Case Keenum | DEN | 22 | 16 | |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | BYE | 16 | |
| Brock Osweiler | MIA | 12 | 15 | |
| Alex Smith | WAS | 14 | 15 | |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TB | 20 | 15 | |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 14 | 14 |
Running Backs
Top 20 Running Back Week 9 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries As Of Nov. 4, 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley II | LAR | 32 | 41 | |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 20 | 31 | |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 27 | 24 | |
| James White | NE | 25 | 20 | |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 18 | 20 | |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 29 | 19 | |
| Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 20 | 19 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | BYE | 17 | |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 24 | 16 | |
| Sony Michel | NE | DNP | 15 | Questionable: Knee - Some concern but is still a game-time decision |
| Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | 5 | 15 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 22 | 15 | |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | 20 | 15 | |
| Alex Collins | BAL | 14 | 14 | |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 14 | 14 | |
| Kerryon Johnson | DET | 15 | 13 | |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | 10 | 11 | |
| Ito Smith | ATL | BYE | 10 | |
| LeGarrette Blount | DET | 4 | 10 | |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | BYE | 10 |
Wide Receivers
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 9 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries As Of Nov. 4, 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 25 | 30 | |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 10 | 29 | |
| Mike Evans | TB | 30 | 27 | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 26 | 26 | |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 13 | 25 | |
| Julio Jones | ATL | BYE | 24 | |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | BYE | 24 | |
| DeSean Jackson | TB | 16 | 23 | |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 28 | 21 | Questionable: Ribs - Not Playing |
| John Brown | BAL | 6 | 20 | |
| Kenny Golladay | DET | 2 | 19 | |
| Will Fuller V | HOU | 23 | 19 | |
| Devin Funchess | CAR | 6 | 18 | |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 11 | 18 | |
| Tyrell Williams | LAC | BYE | 18 | |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | DET | 31 | 18 | |
| Robert Woods | LAR | 12 | 18 | |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 21 | 18 | Questionable: Ankle - Likely Will Play |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 9 | 17 | |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | BYE | 16 |
I was curious to see how Amari Cooper would do for the Cowboys this week after they traded for him before their Bye week last week. My model predicts 8 points out of him so I’m honestly not expecting much out of him for the Cowboys…unfortunately. In this case, I hope I’m wrong!
Tight Ends
Top 12 Tight End Week 9 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries As Of Nov. 1, 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | KC | 20 | 23 | |
| O.J. Howard | TB | 17 | 22 | |
| Michael Roberts | DET | 0 | 18 | |
| Trey Burton | CHI | 5 | 16 | |
| George Kittle | SF | 11 | 16 | |
| Nick O'Leary | MIA | 0 | 15 | |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 16 | 15 | |
| Chris Herndon | NYJ | 9 | 12 | |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 11 | 11 | |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 2 | 11 | |
| Demetrius Harris | KC | 0 | 11 | |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | BYE | 11 |
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 9 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries As Of Nov. 1, 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgio Tavecchio | ATL | 11 | 17 | Matt Bryant Out so Giorgio is In! |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 13 | 13 | |
| Wil Lutz | NO | 12 | 13 | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | 6 | 12 | |
| Greg Zuerlein | LAR | 7 | 11 | |
| Jason Myers | NYJ | 4 | 11 | |
| Brett Maher | DAL | BYE | 10 | |
| Matt Prater | DET | 2 | 9 | |
| Ryan Succop | TEN | BYE | 9 | |
| Harrison Butker | KC | 6 | 9 | |
| Dustin Hopkins | WAS | 8 | 8 | |
| Dan Bailey | MIN | 2 | 8 | |
| Michael Badgley | LAC | BYE | 7 |
Defense
Top 15 Defenses Week 9 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 8 Fantasy Points | Week 9 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 18 |
| NE | 13 | 14 |
| BAL | 0 | 13 |
| MIN | 2 | 12 |
| LAR | 7 | 10 |
| CAR | 8 | 9 |
| KC | 9 | 9 |
| BUF | 2 | 8 |
| DEN | 4 | 8 |
| TB | 2 | 6 |
| DET | 2 | 6 |
| TEN | 0 | 6 |
| DAL | 0 | 5 |
| HOU | 4 | 4 |
| SF | 9 | 3 |
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018 . Injury data is from Rotoworld as of 3:00 PM, Thursday, November 1, 2018.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!