Had a nice little thunderstorm last night…probably one of the first I’ve seen since I moved back to Texas late last year. Unfortunately, one lightning strike nearby caused a nice but quick power outage. I ended up losing a whole lot of my notes on running backs. So remember, kids, save early and often!!
As a reminder, for my models I used data from Pro Football Reference as well as Football Outsiders. The Fantasy Points system I chose to predict is based on the Points-Per-Reception (PPR) system and has scoring broken out like this:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
Now on to the NFL’s running backs…
Last year, three running backs were ranked among the Top 4 Overall Fantasy Rankings for PPR. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) came out on top of all Fantasy Players with 383 points. Third overall was La’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh), and fourth overall was Alvin Kamara (New Orleans). Alvin, of course, was just a rookie last year! The next running back overall was in ninth place, and that was Kareem Hunt from Kansas City, another rookie from last year.
All right, all that aside, it’s time to take a look at my top 20 projected PPR Fantasy Points for NFL RB’s this year. Keep in mind, these projections assume that these players will be playing in all 16 games in the regular season. (Quick note, you should be able to hover over the bars below to see the total projected points for each RB).
No surprise that La’Veon Bell tops the list. Unfortunately, Bell is currently holding out for a better contract so there’s no telling whether or not he’ll play this upcoming weekend. Even if he doesn’t play, it’s likely he will eventually get back on the field and will make up for any lost time. Next is Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas). Ezekiel last year was ninth among running backs in PPR FF Scoring last year, and that was after having been suspended for six games! I’m definitely expecting him to have a fantastic year.
Obviously several of these top running backs will probably be picked up pretty early in any FF draft (most of which probably took place this last weekend), but as you can see there are still several options that can be picked up along the way if they’re still available. Also need to note that my projections don’t include any current rookies. However, there does seem to be a few rookies that would make for good picks in a FF league like Saquon Barkley (New York Giants), Rashaad Penny (Seattle), and Sony Michel (New England) to name a few.