Ah, that picture is a painful reminder that the Cowboys will most likely not be the same without Jason Witten on the field…both for his game play and his leadership. Such a tragedy that he retired this year.
Anyway, I have a feeling that this post may be the most controversial in terms of Fantasy Points projections for Wide Receivers. I had to run the numbers a few times since there are definitely some interesting results.
But first, as a reminder, for my models I used data from Pro Football Reference as well as Football Outsiders. The Fantasy Points system I chose to predict is based on the Points-Per-Reception (PPR) system and has scoring broken out like this:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
Wide Receivers
Here are the project PPR fantasy points for the top 20 wide receivers this year:
2017 was definitely a bad year for most wide receivers as there were quite a few injuries that derailed a few players. Antonio Brown (Pittsurgh) and DeAndre Hopkins (Houston) both tied for first among wide receivers last year with 310 points each. And that’s only with Brown playing 14 games during the regular season and Hopkins playing 15 games. Would have been interesting to see how they would’ve ended up had they both been able to play through all 16 games. So imagine my surprise when my model is predicting Hopkins to drop to 6th place for wide receivers this year! At least Brown gets to keep his top spot.
Probably no surprise that Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants) is predicted to finish second for wide receivers. He was one of the players last year that was injured early in the season and never returned. I’m sure, he, like any other football player, is super hungry to get back out there and shore up his numbers.
Another surprise for me is A.J. Green (Cincinatti). Last year he finished in 11th place among wide receivers, but my model seems to really like him and has him finishing third. Not that I want the football season to end since it hasn’t even begun yet, but I really would like to see how close the model gets that pick! Also surprised to see Brandon Marshall (Seattle) on there as well in 4th. So yeah, let’s see how this all shakes out, shall we? As for rookies, I’m not really sure who will have a breakout year, but I would imagine that Calvin Ridley (Atlanta) and D.J. Moore (Carolina) will be ones to watch.
Tight Ends
As anybody can tell you, good scoring Tight Ends are difficult to find in the NFL so you’re better off getting what you can and praying for the best if you can’t get a top TE.
Not really too many surprises here. Jimmy Graham (Green Bay) will be playing in his first year with the Packers so Aaron Rodgers and Graham might as well be a match made in heaven. Seeing Rob Gronkowski (New England) near the top just highlights his consistency over the years as well. Greg Olsen (Carolina) is predicted to be a Top 5 TE even after having only played seven games last year due to an injury. Evan Engram (New York Giants) was a bit of a break out star as a rookie last year so here’s hoping for another stellar season (just so long as his best games are NOT against the Cowboys, thank you very much). Seeing Antonio Gates (Los Angeles Chargers) on here was interesting given that he was originally dropped back in April. However, due to injuries on the Chargers TE part of the roster, they went ahead and brought him back just three days ago.