While I did run fantasy football projections for Week 1, I didn’t end up publishing them because I didn’t feel like they truly represented reality; I felt they were too over-inflated. I wanted to wait to get the Week 1 results in to feed into my model to hopefully generate more realistic numbers for Week 2. Turns out I really wasn’t all that far off in some cases specifically in the case of Drew Brees (New Orleans) and Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay).
The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle from 2006-2017. As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
Top 20 Quarterback Week 2 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 1 Fantasy Points | Week 2 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 17 | 30 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 34 | 29 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 19 | 27 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 28 | 27 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 27 | 27 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 25 | 27 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 13 | 26 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 26 | 26 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 33 | 24 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 31 | 24 |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 18 | 20 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 20 | 19 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 17 | 19 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 20 | 18 |
| Sam Bradford | ARI | 8 | 18 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 10 | 17 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 21 | 17 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 22 | 17 |
| Tyrod Taylor | CLE | 28 | 17 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 7 | 17 |
One thing to keep in mind is that these predictions are not defense adjusted. In other words, I haven’t yet included features in the model to account for the team that these players will be playing this upcoming weekend. It is certainly on the list of improvements to make, as well as accounting for home field advantage…or lack thereof. But on the list…
I noticed that in my (unpublished) Week 1 and now Week 2 projections Deshaun Watson (Houston) is well liked. Whether or not, he’ll actually get 30 points this week, I guess we’ll see. And if you’re wondering where Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tampa Bay) is, he came out to 16 points in my predictions for Week 2 which didn’t fall into the Top 20 as shown in the table. His average fantasy points per game since 2008 (he only played in two games in 2006 and 2007 with no yards or much of anything to account for those games) is 18. Last year he only played in six games with an average of 15 fantasy points and a max of 28 against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6.
Enjoy and good luck this week!