Yeah, I’m looking at you, dude!
As mentioned in my previous post, I had my first loss in the Fantasy Football (FF) season last weekend. I lost by a whopping 20 points. Unfortunately Kirk Cousins (Minnesota) and Stefon Diggs (Minnesota) as well as just about everybody else on the Vikings Offense had a really horrible day which hurt my chances of winning. I have them both playing in tonight’s game so I’ll know pretty early on how the weekend will go for me.
Quarterbacks
Top 20 Quarterback Week 4 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 28 | 38 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 44 | 27 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 16 | 27 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 18 | 26 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 31 | 26 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 22 | 26 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 23 | 26 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 40 | 25 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 11 | 25 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 19 | 23 |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 18 | 22 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 26 | 20 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 10 | 18 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 14 | 17 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 29 | 17 |
| Sam Bradford | ARI | 16 | 17 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 10 | 17 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 19 | 17 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 12 | 16 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 18 | 16 |
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City) is still expected to have a good week; he has the Monday night game against the Broncos so he’ll be able to shine in prime time. I’m not too sure there are many other surprises this upcoming week. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) has not exactly had a stellar year so far. He’s averaging around 19 points per game, and he’s playing against the Texans so maybe there is something to him doing well.
Running Backs
Top 20 Running Back Week 4 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 17 | 33 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 34 | 30 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 16 | 30 |
| Todd Gurley II | LAR | 27 | 28 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 16 | 27 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 23 | 27 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 16 | 22 |
| Frank Gore | MIA | 1 | 20 |
| Marshawn Lynch | OAK | 18 | 20 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 16 | 19 |
| Royce Freeman | DEN | 13 | 16 |
| Doug Martin | OAK | 4 | 16 |
| Spencer Ware | KC | 5 | 15 |
| Carlos Hyde | CLE | 24 | 15 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 20 | 15 |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | 8 | 14 |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | 13 | 14 |
| Lamar Miller | HOU | 16 | 14 |
| Chris Carson | SEA | 20 | 13 |
| Jonathan Stewart | NYG | 1 | 13 |
Once again this model really loves Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas) and David Johnson (Arizona). Also seems to think that Frank Gore (Miami) will bounce back from a 1-point game last weekend. Here’s hoping for small miracles!
Wide Receivers
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 4 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 20 | 42 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 11 | 37 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 40 | 35 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 21 | 26 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 15 | 24 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 17 | 21 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 23 | 20 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 15 | 18 |
| Brandon Marshall | SEA | 5 | 18 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 11 | 18 |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 16 | 18 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 | 18 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 26 | 17 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 7 | 16 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 6 | 16 |
| Jarvis Landry | CLE | 18 | 15 |
| Allen Robinson II | CHI | 8 | 15 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 8 | 15 |
| DeSean Jackson | TB | 7 | 15 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | 6 | 14 |
I guess I’m still waiting for Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants) to have a breakout game. Model wants him to score 42 points this week, but as abysmal as the New York Giants offense is at this point, intuitively I really don’t think it’ll happen.
Tight Ends
Top 12 Tight End Week 4 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 9 | 29 |
| Will Dissly | SEA | 1 | 22 |
| Jimmy Graham | GB | 10 | 22 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 19 | 20 |
| Antonio Gates | LAC | 8 | 19 |
| Evan Engram | NYG | 3 | 16 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 12 | 15 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 20 | 15 |
| O.J. Howard | TB | 13 | 15 |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 13 | 15 |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 16 | 12 |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 12 | 12 |
Coming of their second loss of the season, I fully expect the Patriots to come out strong. Yeah, I know they looked terrible last week, but Belichick has a way to bring out the best in his teams. I feel like the Rob Gronkowski (New England) will be heavily utilized against the Dolphins this weekend, and I’m sure any of his FF owners hope the same thing as well.
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 4 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Butker | KC | 8 | 14 |
| Dan Bailey | MIN | 0 | 12 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 4 | 12 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | 8 | 9 |
| Josh Lambo | JAC | 6 | 9 |
| Wil Lutz | NO | 13 | 9 |
| Robbie Gould | SF | 7 | 9 |
| Jason Myers | NYJ | 5 | 9 |
| Chandler Catanzaro | TB | 9 | 9 |
| Sebastian Janikowski | SEA | 6 | 9 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 9 | 9 |
| Stephen Hauschka | BUF | 9 | 9 |
Defense
Top 12 Defenses Week 4 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 3 Fantasy Points | Week 4 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| DET | 4 | 9 |
| CHI | 12 | 9 |
| DAL | 2 | 9 |
| NYG | 7 | 9 |
| ARI | 7 | 9 |
| TB | 5 | 6 |
| JAC | 3 | 5 |
| MIN | 3 | 5 |
| NO | 3 | 5 |
| NE | 3 | 5 |
| PIT | 17 | 5 |
| PHI | 2 | 5 |
Currently not a huge fan of my features for Defenses in my model. Since defense pretty much encompasses “half” of a team, there’s much more that goes into what makes a good defense besides turnovers, rushing and passing yards against, etc. I’m currently looking at other metrics to add to that particular dataset to make the predictions more robust especially anything coming out of Football Outsiders which has some very good ones I can probably use. Just need some time to scrape, analyze, etc. In due time, I think. In the meantime, the numbers predicted here are definitely more indicative of what I would expect out of the number of points a defense would get. Obviously there are times where a team will score in the double digits, but it’s not all that likely.
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle from 2006-2018. As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!
Picture courtesy of flurrysports.org