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This last weekend was seriously disappointing for me. After Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs (Minnesota) had monster games giving me nearly 50 fantasy points on Thursday night, I thought I was going to be able to cruise to an easy win. Unfortunately that did not happen. I ended the week with 139 points which would have won in any other week/league, but my opponent scored 169 points. It wasn’t even close!!! Incredibly disappointing, though.
Quarterbacks
Last week there were three QB’s with 40 or more PPR Fantasy Points in one week. I was curious to see how many times that has happened since 2006. There have been only 61 games where QB’s scored 40 or more points since that time, and only twice (including last week) that three QB’s scored 40 or more in the same week. The last time was in Week 17 of the 2011 season (which is normally a throwaway game for teams that haven’t made the playoffs). At that time, Matt Flynn (Green Bay), Matt Stafford (Detroit), and Drew Brees (New Orleans) scored 48, 46, and 40 points respectively. Simply amazing!
One more note, Drew Brees and Tom Brady (New England) have each scored 40 or more points seven times since 2006! Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) has done it five times.
Top 20 Quarterback Week 5 Fantasy Predictions
| Name | Team | Week 4 Fantasy Points | Week 5 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 26 | 34 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 37 | 33 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 11 | 28 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 22 | 28 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 40 | 27 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 26 | 25 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 24 | 23 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 36 | 23 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 11 | 23 |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 26 | 22 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 30 | 21 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 21 | 21 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 33 | 20 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 30 | 20 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 24 | 20 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 18 | 20 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 36 | 19 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 38 | 19 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 44 | 18 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 5 | 18 |
Running Backs
This is where my opponent pretty much annihilated me. He had Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas) and Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati). With those two running backs, my opponent had 60 points while I only had 35 points from my running backs.
[table “26” not found /]Wide Receivers
Since we had three QB’s that did so well last week, I wanted to see if the WR’s did equally as well, but there was no single receiver with a fantastical number of fantasy points. And by fantastical, I mean 50 or more. That achievement has only been done seven times since 2006 with Julio Jones (Atlanta) having done it last year in Week 12 with 51 points. And actually, that’s the only time since 2013 that a WR has scored 50 or more points. If you’re curious, the max number of fantasy points by a WR since 2006 is 53 by Brandon Marshall (Denver) in Week 14 of 2009, and Calvin Johnson (Detroit) in Week 8 of 2013.
In any case, with no WR getting even 40 or more points, the QB’s that did well this week were definitely passing the ball to an assortment of receivers, running backs, and tight ends, spreading the love so to speak.
As far as last week goes, my opponent had some pretty modest points from his top two receivers; his flex WR Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams) was the only one that really pulled him out there. My WR’s actually did well. Stefon Diggs I already mentioned, but Julio Jones (Atlanta) also had a good week with 26 points.
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 5 Fantasy Projections
| Name | Team | Week 4 Fantasy Points | Week 5 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 22 | 36 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 14 | 31 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 26 | 27 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 17 | 26 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 18 | 25 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 9 | 23 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 10 | 22 |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 26 | 21 |
| Brandon Marshall | SEA | 2 | 21 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 6 | 21 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 33 | 21 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 15 | 21 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 13 | 20 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 6 | 20 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 16 | 19 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 37 | 18 |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 0 | 17 |
| Jordy Nelson | OAK | 16 | 17 |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 23 | 17 |
| Jarvis Landry | CLE | 13 | 17 |
Tight Ends
Even though I didn’t start Will Dissly (Seattle) since Week 2, I am sorry to see that he was put on IR this week after suffering an incredibly horrible injury (torn patella tendon) which apparently is one of the worst injuries a football player can have. He’s young so hopefully he’ll be able to bounce back in 2019. But that does leave me in the market for another TE, and I ended up picking up Vance McDonald (Pittsburgh).
Again, under normal circumstances, my TE Zach Ertz (Philadelphia) scoring 21 points last week would signal a spectacular performance by a TE. Unfortunately my opponent had Jared Cook (Oakland) who took the TE prize for the week with 31 points.
Top 11 Tight End Week 5 Fantasy Projections
| Name | Team | Week 4 Fantasy Points | Week 5 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 8 | 25 |
| Jimmy Graham | GB | 11 | 23 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 21 | 21 |
| Antonio Gates | LAC | 11 | 19 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 21 | 15 |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 14 | 15 |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 11 | 12 |
| George Kittle | SF | 24 | 11 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 3 | 10 |
| Jared Cook | OAK | 31 | 10 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | 7 | 9 |
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 5 Fantasy Predictions
| Name | Team | Week 4 Fantasy Points | Week 5 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Butker | KC | 9 | 17 |
| Wil Lutz | NO | 15 | 12 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 8 | 12 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 14 | 11 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | 6 | 9 |
| Greg Joseph | CLE | 8 | 8 |
| Matt Bryant | ATL | 12 | 8 |
| Dan Bailey | MIN | 11 | 8 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | 11 | 8 |
| Mason Crosby | GB | 10 | 8 |
| Caleb Sturgis | LAC | 9 | 8 |
| Robbie Gould | SF | 9 | 8 |
Defense
Defense, defense, defense. The Seattle defense really let me down this last week with only three points while my opponent had 14 points with the Houston defense. I’m hoping for much better results from Seattle next weekend!
Top 12 Defenses Week 5 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 4 Fantasy Points | Week 5 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| GB | 13 | 17 |
| BAL | 5 | 16 |
| PHI | 5 | 16 |
| MIN | 1 | 15 |
| ARI | 2 | 15 |
| NE | 6 | 12 |
| KC | 6 | 11 |
| BUF | 6 | 11 |
| DEN | 1 | 11 |
| PIT | 4 | 10 |
| NYG | 1 | 9 |
| DET | 3 | 8 |
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle from 2006-2018. As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!
Picture courtesy of Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports