My Team’s Week 6 Recap
I really had to laugh at what happened to my team this last weekend. And based on the tone of that last sentence (and my reaction to the picture above) you can probably guess what happened if you don’t follow me on Facebook where I pretty much had a live stream of consciousness going Monday night. Let’s start with Thursday night which started my week fabulously. With RB Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) scoring 38 points and TE Zach Ertz (Philadelpha) scoring 17 points, I was starting out the week very well. But remember, I was going up against a 4-1 team…a team whose majority of players weren’t even playing until Sunday and Monday night. So being up by that much didn’t really mean much as Sunday rolled around. By Monday night, I was up by 7 points, but I only had K Robbie Gould (San Francisco) while my opponent had QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and WR Randall Cobb (Green Bay). Cobb was questionable as of Saturday, so I’m guessing my opponent kept him on his roster all day Sunday. By Monday, Cobb was listed as inactive, and it was probably too late for my opponent to make a switch (or he just didn’t know). So he was a non-entity. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers was having a pretty good game. However, by halftime of the game, we were tied!! And at the two-minute warning I was up by 3 points! Then Aaron Rodgers threw that TD right after that. I was down by two points, so if San Francisco could just make it within field goal range, there was a small chance that I could still win the game. But, nope, interception, game over for the 49ers and my team as well. Such a heartbreaker!
I fall to 3-3, but I’m still in 4th place which means I still have a chance at the playoffs as early as it is. Next week I play against the last place team in our league who is 1-5. I had to pick up a different defense since Seattle is on a Bye this week. I decided to pick up Jacksonville, but I won’t know if I have them until Saturday with the waiver rules in our league so fingers crossed there. Since we now have more teams on a bye (4 vs. 2 the last few weeks), many FF teams will more than likely have to make adjustments so keep an eye on who you have playing this week if you haven’t done so already.
Model Updates
There are many great places to eat in Austin, but one of the little known places (at least it was to me until I was introduced to it back in March) is at St. David’s Episcopal Church in downtown Austin. Every Thursday from 11:30 AM to 1 PM, they serve a rather divine lunch that is absolutely extraordinary. They also have Wednesday dinners and Sunday breakfasts. Just follow that link, and check it out if you happen to be downtown. They also validate parking in the their garage if you’re like me and not always downtown so park there. I try to go every Thursday if I can (well, at least until I find a full-time gig). It’s excellent and very affordable!
So why did I mention that? Last Thursday after I had already published my Week 6 predictions, I met some colleagues at lunch there at St. David’s. While there, I had an epiphany. My original data from The Huddle didn’t have opponent information so I never took into account opponents in my models. However, the more recent data that I had scraped from Football Outsiders did! Until that particular lunch, it didn’t occur to me that I could now make predictions that were accounted for opponents!! I’m slowly rolling it out, so, for now, only the Quarterbacks and Defense predictions have those features. Let’s get to it shall we?
Quarterbacks
Top 20 Quarterback Week 7 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 34 | 34 | |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 13 | 29 | |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 11 | 27 | |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 18 | 24 | |
| Drew Brees | NO | BYE | 24 | |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 32 | 24 | |
| Tom Brady | NE | 27 | 22 | |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 27 | 21 | Questionable : Back-Will Play |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | BYE | 21 | |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 31 | 21 | |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 19 | 20 | |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 14 | 19 | |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 39 | 18 | |
| C.J. Beathard | SF | 22 | 18 | |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 17 | 18 | Questionable: Ankle - Will Play |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 31 | 17 | |
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 23 | 17 | |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 8 | 17 | |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 23 | 17 | |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 16 | 15 |
Running Backs
Top 20 Running Back Week 7 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley II | LAR | 36 | 42 | |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 38 | 36 | |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 35 | 34 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 19 | 26 | |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | BYE | 24 | |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 30 | 23 | |
| David Johnson | ARI | 15 | 22 | |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 12 | 22 | |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 10 | 19 | |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 6 | 18 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 14 | 18 | |
| Sony Michel | NE | 23 | 17 | Questionable: Knee-Likely Will Play |
| Mark Ingram | NO | BYE | 15 | |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | 23 | 14 | |
| Carlos Hyde | CLE | 3 | 14 | |
| Frank Gore | MIA | 13 | 13 | |
| LeGarrette Blount | DET | BYE | 13 | |
| James White | NE | 14 | 13 | |
| Nyheim Hines | IND | 6 | 13 | |
| Royce Freeman | DEN | 2 | 12 |
Wide Receivers
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 7 Fantasy Projections (Updated Sat, 10/20/18)
| Player | Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 10 | 29 | |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 24 | 28 | |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 0 | 0 | Out |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 8 | 27 | Questionable: Ankle-Likely to Play |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 16 | 25 | |
| Josh Gordon | NE | 9 | 24 | Questionable: Hamstring-Likely to Play |
| Michael Thomas | NO | BYE | 24 | |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 15 | 24 | |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 9 | 23 | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 17 | 23 | Questionable: Foot-Likely to Play |
| Terrelle Pryor | NYJ | 17 | 22 | Doubtful: Groin |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 7 | 21 | |
| Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 27 | 20 | |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 39 | 20 | |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 4 | 20 | |
| Michael Crabtree | BAL | 21 | 19 | |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 14 | 18 | |
| Kenny Golladay | DET | BYE | 18 | |
| Kelvin Benjamin | BUF | 6 | 17 | |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | 7 | 16 |
Tight Ends
Top 12 Tight End Week 7 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 13 | 32 | Questionable: Ankle-Likely Will Play |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 11 | 22 | |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 9 | 22 | |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 17 | 20 | |
| Eric Ebron | IND | 17 | 17 | Questionable: Knee-Likely Will Play |
| Vernon Davis | WAS | 14 | 17 | |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 8 | 16 | |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | 12 | 14 | |
| George Kittle | SF | 7 | 13 | Questionable: Knee-Likely Will Play |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | 0 | 10 | |
| Charles Clay | BUF | 6 | 9 | |
| Jermaine Gresham | ARI | 4 | 8 |
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 7 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Butker | KC | 16 | 18 | |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 19 | 12 | |
| Wil Lutz | NO | BYE | 12 | |
| Brett Maher | DAL | 16 | 11 | |
| Dan Bailey | MIN | 9 | 10 | |
| Robbie Gould | SF | 12 | 9 | |
| Jason Myers | NYJ | 24 | 9 | |
| Caleb Sturgis | LAC | DNP | 9 | Questionable: Quad-Week to Week |
| Dustin Hopkins | WAS | 11 | 9 | |
| Stephen Hauschka | BUF | 7 | 9 | |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 3 | 9 | |
| Adam Vinatieri | IND | 10 | 9 |
Defense
Top 15 Defenses Week 7 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 6 Fantasy Points | Week 7 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 17 |
| MIN | 8 | 15 |
| BAL | 11 | 14 |
| PHI | 6 | 14 |
| LAC | 9 | 13 |
| NE | 4 | 12 |
| KC | 4 | 11 |
| BUF | 13 | 11 |
| DEN | 7 | 11 |
| CAR | 3 | 10 |
| NYG | 1 | 8 |
| DET | 0 | 8 |
| DAL | 7 | 6 |
| TEN | 2 | 5 |
| SF | 3 | 5 |
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018 . Injury data is from Rotoworld as of 1 PM Thursday, October 18, 2018.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!