Austin Jazz Week 7 Recap
There wasn’t as much drama this week for the Austin Jazz. I was going up against a team that had only won one game all season. Usually those types of teams have owners that have checked out already and given up. That wasn’t the case for this team, though, since their owner was still making moves and fighting the good fight. That’s fine with me since playing against somebody who has checked out isn’t fun. Technically his team led for most of the week, but I was only down 17 points going into the Monday night game where I had two players playing while my opponent was already done for the week. By halftime I was down by 2 points, but shortly thereafter I was up and ended the week with an easy win, 121-103. I’m now 4-3 and hanging on to 4th place by a thread.
This upcoming week I’m once again pitted against the #1 team in our league sitting at 6-1. Not sure if I’m going to beat him, so wish me luck!!
Model Updates
This last weekend was an interesting one. I found a weekly schedule that I could scrape going back from 2006 that provided information on who won, who lost, what day of the week they played, etc. I wanted to be able to incorporate all that into the model so I spent about 8 hours scraping the data and putting it all together in the format needed for putting it into my model Saturday night from about 9 PM to 5 AM. I even created features for conference games, division games, etc. It was quite a painstaking process. When it was finally nice and ready to merge with all the data I’ve already been using, I ran the QB model…
…and none of it mattered. None of the new features made any impact on the model. So I put those features aside for now. At the very least, they do provide good information for data analysis later, though. I can see if a player’s performance is affected by playing a Thursday night game with a short turn around time. Or if there is a difference in playing rivalry games. Something for me to explore later.
One update I did make that is in the new numbers you see below is that I finally take into account recent performance. You’ll notice that there are significant differences in the rankings and will see players that more than likely weren’t getting enough visibility from my previous models. I’ll make some comments on those below.
Quarterbacks
Top 20 Quarterback Week 8 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries (As of Noon CST 10/25/2018) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 38 | 34 | |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 39 | 29 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 26 | 28 | Questionable: Shoulder - Likely to Play |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 30 | 27 | |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 24 | 25 | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | BYE | 25 | |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 20 | 24 | |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | BYE | 24 | |
| Tom Brady | NE | 26 | 24 | |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 18 | 22 | |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 12 | 22 | |
| C.J. Beathard | SF | 14 | 22 | |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 24 | 22 | Questionable: Back - Likely to Play |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 11 | 20 | |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 6 | 19 | |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 22 | 18 | |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | BYE | 18 | |
| Brock Osweiler | MIA | 20 | 17 | |
| Derek Carr | OAK | BYE | 16 | |
| Alex Smith | WAS | 14 | 16 |
You can already see one big difference in the rankings here with the new weighting. For example, Deshaun Watson (Houston) had previously always fallen in the top 2 or 3 in the rankings for the week. Now he’s fallen down to 11th in the rankings which more reflects a drop in performance this season. I also like how Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago) has now soared up to near the top, as well as Cam Newton (Carolina) and Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay).
Running Backs
Top 20 Running Back Week 8 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries (as of 2 AM CST 10/27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 31 | 39 | |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 24 | 30 | |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 37 | 30 | |
| James Conner | PIT | BYE | 24 | |
| James White | NE | 30 | 22 | |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 22 | 20 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 14 | 19 | |
| Marlon Mack | IND | 30 | 18 | Questionable: Ankle - Likely to Play |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAC | 18 | 18 | |
| David Johnson | ARI | 10 | 17 | |
| Carlos Hyde | JAC | DNP | 15 | |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 8 | 14 | |
| Matt Breida | SF | 2 | 14 | Questionable: Ankle - Unlikely to Play |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 12 | 14 | |
| Sony Michel | NE | 4 | 14 | Questionable: Knee - Unlikely to Play |
| Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | 6 | 13 | |
| Alex Collins | BAL | 8 | 13 | |
| Corey Clement | PHI | 4 | 13 | |
| Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 17 | 12 | |
| Chris Carson | SEA | BYE | 12 |
Another difference in the rankings is that James Conner (Pittsburgh) finally gets some love. As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, he was not showing in the Top 20 mainly because his past performance before this year was pretty low. Being Pittsburgh’s #1 RB however has been good to him as a fantasy player, and that is now factored into my model. Glad to have him!!!
Wide Receivers
Top 20 Wide Receiver Week 8 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | MIN | 26 | 30 |
| Davante Adams | GB | BYE | 28 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | 21 | 28 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | BYE | 25 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 14 | 25 |
| DeSean Jackson | TB | 11 | 24 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 18 | 24 |
| Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 22 | 24 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 22 | 23 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 19 | 23 |
| Robert Woods | LAR | 13 | 22 |
| Brandin Cooks | LAR | 17 | 21 |
| John Brown | BAL | 26 | 20 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | BYE | 20 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 28 | 20 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | BYE | 19 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 6 | 18 |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 11 | 17 |
| Will Fuller V | HOU | 13 | 15 |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | 22 | 15 |
The rankings are also very much changed here. Adam Thielen (Minnesota) shoots to the top of rankings while Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants), who was usually among the top wide receivers in the past, falls quite a bit in the rankings.
Tight Ends
Top 12 Tight End Week 8 Fantasy Projections
| Player | Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries (as of Noon CST 10/25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | KC | 14 | 21 | |
| Eric Ebron | IND | 6 | 21 | |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 23 | 21 | |
| Trey Burton | CHI | 28 | 19 | |
| George Kittle | SF | 21 | 18 | |
| Jared Cook | OAK | BYE | 17 | |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | DNP | 15 | Questionable: Back - Likely to Play |
| O.J. Howard | TB | 12 | 15 | |
| Nick O'Leary | MIA | 4 | 13 | |
| Jimmy Graham | GB | BYE | 13 | |
| Vance McDonald | PIT | BYE | 13 | |
| Cameron Brate | TB | 5 | 11 |
Kickers
Top 12 Kickers Week 8 Fantasy Predictions
| Player | Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions | Injuries (as of 2 AM CST 10/27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Crosby | GB | BYE | 12 | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | 8 | 12 | |
| Jason Myers | NYJ | 5 | 12 | |
| Dan Bailey | MIN | 13 | 11 | |
| Harrison Butker | KC | 9 | 11 | |
| Stephen Gostkowski | NE | 8 | 11 | |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | 5 | 9 | |
| Dustin Hopkins | WAS | 8 | 9 | |
| Cody Parkey | CHI | 7 | 9 | |
| Adam Vinatieri | IND | 5 | 8 | Questionable: Groin - Likely will Play |
| Robbie Gould | SF | 4 | 8 | |
| Aldrick Rosas | NYG | 6 | 8 |
Defense
Top 15 Defenses Week 2 Fantasy Predictions
| Team | Week 7 Fantasy Points | Week 8 Fantasy Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4 | 9 |
| MIN | 11 | 9 |
| CAR | 5 | 9 |
| CHI | 7 | 9 |
| NYG | 5 | 7 |
| TB | 7 | 6 |
| SEA | BYE | 5 |
| LAR | 17 | 5 |
| CLE | 14 | 5 |
| NYJ | 1 | 5 |
| PIT | BYE | 5 |
| SF | 2 | 5 |
| JAC | 1 | 5 |
| OAK | BYE | 5 |
| KC | 10 | 5 |
*The predictions for this model comes from statistics tables scraped from The Huddle and Football Outsiders from 2006-2018 . Injury data is from Rotoworld as of 10 AM Thursday, October 25, 2018.
As usual I used the Fantasy Points-Per-Reception (PPR) scores for my predictions which comes from the following:
- 1 point per 25 yards passing
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- -2 points per interception thrown
- 1 point per reception
- 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 6 points per TD
- 2 points per two-point conversion
- -2 points per fumbles lost
All predictive elements for Fantasy Football Models are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research before making any decisions on your Fantasy Football team especially in money leagues!!